Sulphur prices are expected to remain under pressure over the next 30–60 days, as fertilizer producers respond to historically high sulphur costs by reducing operating rates, postponing purchases and reassessing their raw-material requirements.
Recent developments indicate a clear softening across major importing markets:
- Sulphur prices have fallen by approximately $40–150/tonne in several importing markets.
- Middle Eastern producers reduced September contract values by up to $40/tonne compared with August.
- Kazakh sulphur cargoes have returned to international markets, with shipments reported to Morocco and Mediterranean destinations.
Prices have weakened in major markets including India, China and Indonesia, while offers from Middle Eastern and Canadian suppliers have also eased. September contract settlements in the Middle East were either rolled over or reduced by $10–40/tonne, reflecting weaker import-market fundamentals.
The main factor behind the downturn is the deterioration in fertilizer economics. Higher sulphur costs have compressed margins for phosphate producers, encouraging some manufacturers to reduce operating rates or delay purchases.
The situation is also affecting individual producers. In South Africa, Foskor has returned to the sulphur market after abandoning an earlier tender because of high offers. The company has reportedly been unable to produce MAP since April due to sulphur shortages. Meanwhile, Libya’s NOC recently awarded a sulphur tender at lower price levels.
However, the market may not be heading toward a sharp correction. Sulphur inventories remain relatively tight, and a prolonged reduction in sulphur purchases could eventually constrain phosphate production. This could provide a floor to the decline in sulphur prices.
Sulphur price movement
The reported decline of $40–150/tonne across importing markets illustrates the magnitude of the recent correction.