The global fertilizer industry is entering 2026 under a cloud of uncertainty as geopolitical tensions, energy costs, and supply-chain disruptions continue to reshape markets. While fertilizer prices remain below the extreme highs seen in 2022, the sector is again experiencing upward pressure that could influence agricultural production and global food prices.
One of the main drivers of instability is geopolitical conflict affecting key trade routes and producing regions. Recent tensions involving Iran have raised concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for fertilizers and related inputs such as sulfur and ammonia. Nearly half of global urea and sulfur trade and about 20% of the natural gas used in fertilizer production pass through this corridor, meaning disruptions could quickly raise costs worldwide.
At the same time, the industry continues to feel the lingering effects of the Russia–Ukraine war, which significantly disrupted nitrogen fertilizer exports and reshaped global trade flows. Reduced Russian exports and new tariffs in Europe have redirected supplies toward markets such as Brazil and India, tightening availability elsewhere and contributing to price volatility.
Prices are already showing signs of renewed pressure. In early March 2026, global fertilizer prices rose by about 6.5% within days, surprising analysts who expected stabilization alongside cooling commodity markets. Higher fertilizer costs are increasingly being viewed as a potential driver of global food inflation, especially during key planting seasons.
Farmers around the world are feeling the impact. In the United States, fertilizer expenses for major crops such as corn are expected to increase again in 2026, with average costs projected around $166 per acre, up more than 5% from the previous year. Higher input costs combined with lower crop revenues are squeezing farm margins and forcing producers to reconsider planting strategies.
Despite these challenges, the industry is also undergoing structural change. Countries heavily dependent on imports are investing in domestic fertilizer production to improve supply security. For example, Brazil is expanding projects that convert agricultural waste into fertilizer, aiming to reduce reliance on imports that currently account for about 85% of the country’s fertilizer consumption.
At the same time, technological and environmental trends are reshaping the sector. The market for sustainable and organic fertilizers is growing rapidly, and analysts expect eco-friendly products to capture a larger share of the global market in the coming years.
Looking ahead, analysts believe fertilizer markets will remain sensitive to geopolitical events, energy prices, and trade policies. While some forecasts suggest prices could ease if export restrictions relax and supply improves, ongoing conflicts and concentrated global production mean volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the fertilizer industry in the near term.